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Asteroid 2024 YR4 Has a Small but Notable Chance of Earth Impact in 2032
NASA scientists are closely monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, a newly discovered 55-metre-wide object with a 1.2% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. If it collides, it could release energy equivalent to eight megatons of TNT, enough to cause serious regional damage. Currently ranked as a Level 3 threat on the Torino Scale, its classification may change as more data refines its trajectory. Space agencies are exploring asteroid deflection strategies, including kinetic impactors, to mitigate potential threats. While the risk remains low, continued tracking is essential.
A newly detected asteroid, named 2024 YR4, has been observed by NASA scientists, carrying a 1.2 percent probability of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. The asteroid, estimated to be around 55 metres in diameter, has been tracked since its discovery on December 27, 2024, through the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System. While the likelihood of impact remains low, experts indicate that if the object were to strike Earth, it could generate an explosion equivalent to eight megatons of TNT—over 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb—posing a serious threat to urban areas. Several close approaches to Earth have been predicted over the next 50 years, with the most significant occurring in 2032.
Probability and Potential Consequences
According to data from NASA, 2024 YR4 has been categorised as a Level 3 threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. This classification is assigned to space objects that warrant public and scientific attention due to their potential for impact within the next century. Most asteroids of this level, however, are eventually downgraded as additional observations refine their trajectories. While this asteroid is not large enough to cause a global catastrophe, a direct collision with a densely populated region could lead to significant destruction and loss of life. Scientists stress the importance of continuous monitoring and updated risk assessments.
Future Close Approaches and Monitoring Efforts
Reports indicate that 2024 YR4 will pass Earth several times between 2028 and 2074, with the highest impact probability currently projected for December 2032. NASA and other space agencies continue to develop asteroid deflection technologies, including kinetic impactor missions such as the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), which successfully demonstrated the ability to alter an asteroid's trajectory. Although the probability of collision remains low, experts assert that sustained tracking and preparedness measures are essential in mitigating potential asteroid threats in the future.
